Tuesday, December 21, 2010

What's Ahead: My Predictions for 2011

Since I've seen so many of these lists in and around my RSS feeds and Twitter, I thought I'd make my own little "Predictions" list for the coming year. Then next year we can look back at them and laugh. Unless they come true, then we can all hail me as the next Oracle of Omaha or something.

Prediction #1: Facebook will be the new AOL. 

Yes, I am a social media marketer, yes I am a constant Facebook user, and yes, I think Mark Zuckerberg is a twit. But at some point, Facebook will have to hit a growth wall, just like AOL did in the '90s. Facebook has had a very turbulent year with snafus, feature rollouts, and more, and the more I think about it, the more Facebook looks like AOL. What was AOL's idea? To create the only place on the internet you'd ever actually need to go to. Which is what Facebook is doing now--they integrate with everything, and if they can't beat it, they duplicate it (see: Facebook Places vs. Foursquare). Eventually, they're going to move away from their original mission, which might have been to take over the world, but I think was actually to share photos or maybe rate hot girls. They are going to get too big for their britches, and unless Zuckerberg suddenly matures 20 years in 6 months, I foresee a disaster.

Prediction #2: New TLDs will happen and they will be hot property

I say this as someone who works for a domain registrar and has been reading about this plenty. If you don't know what a TLD is, basic explanation is it's the ending on your URL, like .com or .net. This year we saw the launch of .co as a gTLD, and it's been pretty darn successful. So a lot of applicants have started clamoring for their own TLDs, and some look super promising, like .nyc, .movie, and .africa. Today people are excited about country code TLDs that let you have cool URLs like bit.ly (.ly is the Lybian TLD), but the new TLDs will be better. With hyper-local marketing the current big thing on the internet, how much easier would it be to do location based marketing in San Francisco with the .sfo domain in your URL?

Prediction #3: ...

You tell me what you're predicting!

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